- Research area
Methods
Measurement · Digital trace data · Computational social science
Online data look like a window on society, but mostly they measure attention, not opinions or political support. Since the first Twitter election forecasts I have shown where these data mislead and how to use them with their limitations and data-generating process in mind. Today I bring the same questions to AI-enabled methods for persuasion, search, and simulation.
For anyone reading election forecasts or the public mood off social media or AI: what these numbers can and cannot show.
Selected publications
- Analyzing Political Communication with Digital Trace Data
Twitter data show politics as filtered by who posts and why. A framework for valid inferences, applied to the 2009 German federal election.
- Digital Trace Data in the Study of Public Opinion
Twitter mentions of parties differed strongly from their election results and poll numbers. They track the ups and downs of public attention to politics, not political support.
- Why the Pirate Party Won the German Election of 2009 or the Trouble with Predictions
A much-cited study claimed that Twitter mentions of parties predicted Germany’s 2009 election. Its result rested on arbitrary choices: include the Pirate Party, and Twitter would have predicted its victory.
Recent publications 9
2025 3
- Computational Political Communication: Theory, Applications, and Interdisciplinary ChallengesEdited by Yannis Theocharis and Andreas Jungherr
- Digital Trace DataAndreas Jungherr
- Social Media and Electoral Prediction: Ten Years AfterDaniel Gayo-Avello, Andreas Jungherr, and Gonzalo Rivero
2023 1
- Computational Social ScienceAndreas Jungherr and Oliver Posegga
2021 2
- Computational Political Communication: Theory, Applications, and Interdisciplinary ChallengesEdited by Yannis Theocharis and Andreas Jungherr
- Computational Social Science and the Study of Political CommunicationYannis Theocharis and Andreas Jungherr
2019 3
- Characterizing Political Talk on Twitter: A Comparison Between Public Agenda, Media Agendas, and the Twitter Agenda with Regard to Topics and DynamicsOliver Posegga and Andreas Jungherr
- Digitale Verhaltensdaten und Computational Social Science in der politischen KommunikationsforschungSebastian Stier and Andreas Jungherr
- Political Discussions in Homogeneous and Cross-Cutting Communication SpacesJisun An, Haewoon Kwak, Oliver Posegga, and Andreas Jungherr