Category Bits and pieces

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Die Lektionen der SPD aus dem us-amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlkampf 2012

Apr 14, ’13 4:47 PM

Heute öffnete die SPD eine ihrer kampagnenunterstützenden Onlineplattform mitmachen.spd.de. An der Plattform und der begleitenden Rhetorik durch Parteispitze und Onlinecampaigner werden wesentliche Unterschiede zwischen den Lektionen – bzw. den offen kommunizierten Lektionen – deutlich, die Kampagnenmacher der SPD und CDU aus dem vergangenen US amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlkampf gezogen haben.

Andrea Nahles spricht bereits seit einigen Monaten immer wieder von der Betonung des Tür-zu-Tür Wahlkampfs in der Planung der bevorstehenden SPD-Kampagne. Dabei fällt immer wieder die Zahl von 4 Millionen geplanten Hauskontakten. Zusätzlich soll die Wahlkreisarbeit durch professionelle “Campaigner” koordiniert werden, die in Absprache mit dem Willy-Brandt-Haus mehrere Wahlkreise betreuen sollen. Mit Sicherheit tut man gut daran, Aussagen von politischem Spitzenpersonal über ihre geplanten Wahlkampfvorhaben mit etwas gesunder Skepsis zu lesen, aber dennoch zeigen diese Äußerungen und Planungen, dass die SPD – zumindest in der Rhetorik über ihre Kampagnen – entscheidende Lektionen aus dem Erfolg der Kampagnen von Barack Obama in 2008 und 2012 gezogen haben. Wie auch hier schon mehrmals betont, liegen diese Lektionen nicht in der kreativen Nutzung von Twitter oder Facebook durch Barack Obamas Kampagnenstab, sondern in der effektiven Nutzung von Onlinetools für die Unterstützung des Fundraising der Kampagne und der Mobilisierung von Wählern an der Tür.

Ein weiteres Indiz dafür, dass die Aussagen von Andrea Nahles ernst genommen werden sollten, ist ein Blogpost von Mathias Richel, einem der Onlinekampagnenberatern der SPD, mit dem er die Öffnung der mitmachen.spd.de Plattform begleitete. Hierin spricht Richel über die der Plattform zugrundeliegenden Ziele, die Designprinzipien und die Ausrichtung der Plattform über den Bundestagswahlkampf 2013 hinaus.

Jetzt muss natürlich abgewartet werden, ob all die rhetorisch richtig gesetzten Punkte sich tatsächlich in den Kampagnenalltag übertragen lassen. Dennoch besteht hier die Möglichkeit, dass die SPD mit dieser Ausrichtung die Kampagnenfähigkeit ihrer Verbände weit über die Bundestagswahl 2013 hinaus deutlich stärkt. Für diese Stärkung ist es übrigens völlig unabhängig, ob Peer Steinbrück die kommende Bundestagswahl gewinnt oder verliert. Für die Stärkung der Kampagneninfrakstruktur der SPD ist nur wichtig wie erfolgreich die “Campaigner” vor Ort agieren, wie gut der Tür-zu-Tür Wahlkampf in den Wahlkreisen angenommen wird und wie erfolgreich die Evaluation der einzelnen Kampagnenelemente in einen wahlkampfüberschreitenden Lernprozess übertragen werden.

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Housekeeping 2012

Dec 31, ’12 9:19 PM

Books published 1
Papers published in peer-reviewed journals 3
Papers in review maelstrom 3
Dissertation chapters written 1/2
Papers presented at conferences 1
Other talks given 12
Blogposts published on “Too Bad You Never Knew Ace Hanna” 23
Other publications 4
Courses taught 3
Courses taken 1

Kilometers traveled 37.874
Days spent on the road 104
Cities visited 30
Countries visited 5 (Belgium, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, USA)

Secret evil plans n

So much for 2012. Let’s see what 2013 has got in store.

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Technology in US-Campaigns: Readings

Nov 10, ’12 4:08 PM

The US-election has come and gone and suddenly seemingly everyone agrees that “data” is the next big thing in political campaigns. This is great for journalists. Now they can update their pieces on the 2008 Obama-campaign by simply replacing the words “Facebook” and “Social Media” by the words “data” and “databases”. It’s also great for consultants since they are suddenly awarded with a new transformative, disruptive, and definitely decisive tool to sell to their clients. As such this is nothing new. The “microtargeting revolution” of the 90s and the “social media revolution” of 2008 were sold the same way.

So one could read the growing deluge of journalistic pieces on how Obama won with data with curiosity but reserved detachment:

    • Databases: been there done that
    • Campaigns buying data: only possible with the rather lax privacy regulation in the US
    • Campaigns collecting data: too expensive, would lead to public outcry in other countries
    • Campaigns using quantitative models: does not work without extensive databases
    • Volunteers knocking on doors: specific to the US-context does not work in other countries

    While some of these statements might have a point, they mistake new tools and campaign techniques for the true lesson of the US-campaign of 2012. The new tools and techniques used by the Obama-campaign are specific answers to a specific campaign context. As such they have probably little general applicability. But focusing on this means missing the bigger point: the innovations of the Obama campaign are rooted in the organisational culture of the campaign itself and the culture of its allies. This organisational culture holds important lessons for campaigns in different electoral, legal and cultural contexts. Ignoring these lessons means missing the bigger picture and just adopting a comfortable reading that justifies one’s business-as-usual approach.

    Two of these changes in the organisational culture are:

    • A quantitative turn in the selection, evaluation and interpretation of tried campaigning techniques off- and online
    • A heavy emphasis on the training of campaigning staff in campaigning techniques and skills by the campaign and its allies

    Both these trends have been identified and very well documented by scholars and practitioners alike. Still, there is the danger that these more nuanced accounts of the messy process of campaign innovation are ignored in favour of the breathless accounts of shiny new campaigning toys. If this happens this will lead to a boom-and-bust cycle for the use of “data” in campaigns that will resemble the hype surrounding the use of “social media” in campaigns.

    To put the discussion of the real innovations of the Obama-campaigns of 2008 and 2012 and their potential influences on the election results on a sounder footing a short list of texts by scholars and practitioners might prove helpful. Sure, an article in one’s favourite newspaper or magazine might be a quicker read, but – as argued above – in choosing these accounts one would more often than not sacrifice sound analysis for peace of mind.

    Background on political campaigns in the USA:

  • General analysis of the campaign 2008:

  • General analysis of the campaign 2012:

  • Organisational culture of Democratic campaigns and their allies:

  • Get out the Vote:

  • Technological Innovations:

  • [Update: 2012/11/13]
    Very good interview with Matthew Hindman on the role of the Internet in the US campaigns of 2012.

    [Update: 2012/11/14]
    Very helpful account of what is presently know about the analytical efforts of the Obama campaign by Lois Beckett.

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    Organisationskultur als tatsächliche Lektion der Obama-Kampagne für den deutschen Wahlkampf

    Nov 9, ’12 4:51 PM

    Die US-Wahl ist noch keine Woche vorbei und schon zeichnet sich ab, dass Innovationen der demokratischen Kampagnenführung in ihrer Bedeutung für den deutschen Wahlkampf wenig zielführend interpretiert werden: Anstelle die gezielte Wähler-Mobilisierung über große Datenbanken mit detaillierten Datensätzen als für Deutschland nicht durchführbar zu erklären (da Geld für den Aufbau der Datenbanken fehlt, bzw. es rechtlich für Parteien nicht möglich ist, vergleichbare Datensätze kommerziell einzukaufen) und es dabei zu belassen wäre es sinnvoller, sich zwei grundlegende Elemente demokratischer Kampagnen seit 2004 genauer anzusehen:

    1. Eine Veränderung der Kampagnenkultur weg von anekdotischem Expertenwissen hin zu quantitativ belegbaren Erkenntnissen durch die Nutzung von Experimenten in Kampagnen;

    und

    2. Die gezielte Ausbildung von Freiwilligen in praktischen Fragen der Kampagnenführung on- und offline durch verschiedene Organisationen aus dem Umfeld der demokratischen Partei (zB New Organizing Institute).

    Beide dieser Elemente haben die effektive Nutzung von Datenbanken und quantitativen Modellen für die gezielte Mobilisierung potentieller Unterstützer erst möglich gemacht und beide dieser Elemente wären ohne Weiteres auch in deutschen Kampagnen anwendbar. Es geht also nicht darum, ob spezifische Werkzeuge und Methoden der Obama-Kampagne in Deutschland verwendbar sind. Die Frage ist eher, ob wir aus der Organisationskultur der Kampagne und ihres Umfelds lernen können.

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    Housekeeping 2010

    Jan 1, ’11 11:59 PM

    Papers published in journals 1
    Papers published in edited volumes 2
    Papers published in conference proceedings 1
    Papers in review maelstrom 1
    Papers in advanced draft stages 5

    Number of coauthors 6

    Dissertation chapters written 0

    Secret evil plans 2

    Manuscripts reviewed 5

    Papers presented at conferences 4
    Coauthor of papers presented at conferences 2
    Other talks given 7

    Conference panels accepted 1

    Grant proposals in review maelstrom 1
    Grant proposals rejected 1

    Blogposts published on “Too Bad You Never Knew Ace Hanna” 26
    Blogposts published on other blogs 3
    Other publications 2

    Interviews given 5

    Courses taught 3

    Worked for political campaigns 1
    Summer universities visited 1

    Kilometers traveled 42.184
    Days spent on the road 184
    Cities visited 23
    Countries visited 4 (Italy, USA, UK, Ireland, Spain)

    So much for 2010. Let’s see what 2011 has got in store.

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    Stats on Internet Use in Germany

    Dec 3, ’10 11:57 PM

    While researchers of online communication or internet enabled social behavior strongly believe in the growing importance of the internet and its significant effect on social processes this believe is not always shared by more traditional social scientists. But data speaks louder than beliefs. So who is doing regular studies on internet use in Germany and what are important one-shot studies? Here is a short list to get this started. But the more important question is: What studies have I missed? I’d greatly appreciate it if you’d add to this list in the comments.

    ARD/ZDF Onlinestudie
    One of the probably most comprehensive sources of data on internet usage behavior in Germany are the ARD/ZDF Onlinestudien. Since 1997 the German TV stations ARD and ZDF regularly conduct a representative telephone survey with the aim of documenting the development of internet use in Germany. Since 2009 the results of the studies get regularly published in the journal Media Perspektiven. On their website you can find documentation on the ARD/ZDF Onlinestudien since 1997.

    Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
    Since 2000 the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen each quarter collects data on internet use in Germany in their report Internet-Strukturdaten. They base their reports on representative telephone surveys. They collect data on internet use, the demographics of internet users (i.e. age, education, occupation), the political preferences, political uses, and usage intensity.

    Statistisches Bundesamt
    Another source for information on internet use in Germany is the Statistische Bundesamt. The Amt regularly publishes information on internet use in enterprises and private households. Also they publish data on the demographics and the way how the internet is used.

    JIM: Jugend, Information, (Multi-)Media
    Since 1998 the Medienpädagogischer Forschungsverbund Südwest publishes a yearly study into the media usage of 12 to 19 year olds in Germany called JIM: Jugend, Information, (Multi-)Media. In this study they regularly document the use of the internet by that demographic. The study is based on telephone interviews with approximately 1000 12 to 19 year olds. The studies are available for download on their website.

    KIM: Kinder und Medien Computer und Internet
    Since 1999 the Medienpädagogischer Forschungsverbund Südwest also conducts regular studies into the media usage of 6 to 12 year olds in Germany. This study is called Kinder und Medien Computer und Internet. These studies are also availble for download.

    So, what else is out there?

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    Bits and pieces from last week 2009/50

    Dec 13, ’09 12:02 AM

    Drinking from the Firehose: Why Obama Should Stay the Hell Off Twitter

    Colin Delany [@epolitics] gives an interesting perspective on the question whether leading politicians should use Twitter:

    But I’d also argue that Twitter is fundamentally a bad match for a Chief Executive, for exactly the same reasons that so many other people are drawn to it. Like the rest of the social media universe, Twitter is effectively unfiltered, with a low wheat-to-chaff ratio even if you’re careful whom you follow. In many ways this is a strength, since part of the fun of the service is that you get access to so much information and opinion coming in from so many directions.

    This argument focuses on the value of unfiltered vs filtered information for politicians:

    While unfiltered information is valuable for bloggers, journalists and those of us with short attention spans, it’s not usually the best thing with which to fill your time when your actions have real-world consequences for, well, the entire world.

    This argument does not address the elements of mediated intimacy, access or public conversations that are quite useful to politicians using Twitter. Still this argument is probably a reason for the social media “glass ceiling” which the Belgian blogger Clo Willaerts [@bnox] identified last month in her talk at the Personal Democracy Forum Europe. Her term describes the phenomenon that even social media savvy politicians stop using social media channels once they reach a certain level of responsibility.

    Maybe Delany’s argument will give some pause to the All-Politicians-Online-All-The-Time Pundits.

    An Internet Politics Index to David Plouffe’s The Audacity to Win

    Colin Delany once again: In this post Delany gives a very useful index of passages that deal with the internet and politics in David Plouffe‘s account of the Obama campaign The Audacity to Win, a book that I’ll address in more detail later this month.

    Tom Peters: Cool Friends Interview with Garrison Keillor

    As a nice diversion from politics I’d suggest this interview with Garrison Keillor. In this piece he talks among other things about his writing and editing process:

    [...] as you get older, you learn how to throw it out without much thought, without much pity. You look at a piece that you’ve written, and you take those first three paragraphs, and you dump them. You just rip them out. Usually, that’s the part that needs to be thrown out, the big windup, the big introduction. The first page almost always can go. You learn to do that without regret. I edit myself much more quickly and mercilessly now than I ever could have 20, 30 years ago.

    Other topics are his show The Prairie Home Companion, the director Robert Altman, public speaking and the durability of sonnets.

    If by any cruel twist of fate the name Garrison Keillor means nothing to you have a look at Garrison Keillor: The Man on the Radio in the Red Shoes or listen to his News from Lake Wobegon.

    From Cool Hunters to Chief Culture Officers: An Interview with Grant McCracken

    While preparing a talk on the role of convergence in the online campaigns of various German parties in the run up to the German Bundestagswahl 2009 I turned once again to the work and blog of Henry Jenkins. There I stumbled on this great talk by Grant McCracken at the Futures of Entertainment 4 Conference. In this presentation McCracken introduces his concept of the Chief Culture Officer and its potential for companies:

    Corporations have been notoriously bad at reckoning with culture. They manage the “problem of culture” with ad hocery of many kinds. They call on ad agencies, consultants, gurus and cool hunters and, when all else fails, the intern down the hall. But there is no single person and, worse, there is no senior manager. Even as culture grows ever more dynamic, various, demanding, and participatory. So that’s my argument: there ought to be someone in the C-Suite who’s job it is to reckon with culture and to spot the opportunities and dangers it represents.

    McCracken’s book just made it on my to-read list.

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    Bits and pieces from last week 2009/11

    Mar 15, ’09 1:00 PM

    Klaus-Peter Schöppner: „Partei der Mitte“: Der Chancentod der CDU
    An interesting analysis of the state of things for the CDU before the German election campaign 2009.

    Henry Farrell: Political scientists in public debate
    This is a nice conversation starter about the roles political scientists should play in the public discourse about politics.

    Joshua-Michele Ross: The Rise Of The Social Nervous System
    and
    Tim O’Reilly: The Social Nervous System Has More Than One Sense
    Joshua-Michele Ross gets the ball rolling by talking about the real-life consequences of the use of social media by large groups of interconnected people. Messages send through internet services to a large community of interest become signals that in turn influence behavior. Tim O’Reilly then picks it up and plays with the possibilities when internet services go beyond text messages. What information will be send by our devices and what signals will be picked up by our community of interest?

    Quinn Norton: Etech liveblogging: Mobile Phones Reveal the Behaviors of Places and People (Tony Jebara)
    Robert Kaye: ETech: Mobile Phones Reveal the Behaviors of Places and People
    Two accounts of an interesting presentation at this years Etech where Tony Jebara talked about Mobile Phones Reveal the Behavior of Places and People. These are interesting examples on how to infer social context from seemingly unrelated data. Also a reminder for all those who search for the ultimate social graph on the net, that they have to include offline social behavior in their analyses.

    Clay Shirky: Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable
    Clay Shirky once again comments on the future-of-newspaper debate. His take is: we are living through a transition, we don’t know what will work, we therefor have to experiment – a lot. Sounds like just the time for rapid prototyping. His point is, that we have to phrase the question differently. Not, how can we save newspapers. But, how can we provide the functions newspaper provided for society in this new emerging environment.

    Paul Starr: Goodbye to the Age of Newspapers (Hello to a New Era of Corruption)
    Yochai Benkler: A New Era of Corruption?
    Benkler answers to Starr’s original essay on the public goods that will be lost with the death-of-newspapers. He does not share Starr’s pessimistic outlook.

    Steven Berlin Johnson: Old Growth Media and the Future of News
    This is the transcript of a speech Steven Berlin Johnson at the SXSW09. What makes his take on the death-of-newspaper-story interesting is his vision of locally relevant news that can be reported and distributed through social media and his idea of traditional media outlets as filters to a plethora of news.

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    Bits and pieces from last week 2009/10

    Mar 8, ’09 8:00 PM

    Adam Rogers: Legendary Comics Writer Alan Moore on Superheroes, The League, and Making Magic
    In all the Watchmen-Hype that is thrown our way, this is a welcome piece of reflective commentary on comics, superheroes, and some extraordinary gentlemen. Wired interviews the author of Watchmen, Alan Moore.

    Bruce Sterling: What Bruce Sterling Actually Said About Web 2.0 at Webstock 09
    Sterling’s take on the nature of Web 2.0 and the coming transition makes for great reading for all the self-declared social-media-specialists. Read it. Then read it again, slowly.

    Alexander Schellong: Facebook, data and the demographic
    A rough guess on the growth of Facebook in terms of server space. Quite a lot of space assuming of course Facebook is still around in 2060.

    Stephanie Condon: Obama’s CIO wants more citizen activity on Web
    Johnson: Data.gov: The Vivek Kundra Opportunity
    Tim O’Brien: Vivek Kundra: Federal CIO in His Own Words
    These three articles illustrate why the pol-tech-data-crowd is quite happy with Vivek Kundra. At least this is a discussion on politics/government that doesn’t involve the marketing folks. So I am happy, too.
    [via Nancy Scola: Kundra Lays Out "Wholistic View" for Government IT]

    James Duncan Davidson: Dear Speakers
    And finally some always welcome advice for all public speakers out there.
    [via Cory Doctorow: Excellent public speaking advice]

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    Some interesting bits from last week

    Jan 4, ’09 12:00 PM

    10,000 hours: Seth Godin comments on Malcolm Gladwell’s latest book Outliers. He doubts Gladwell’s magic 10k hours thesis.

    Politics is Viral — AND Local: Colin Delany emphasizes the importance of local communities for online campaigns.

    Good advice from writers to start the new year: Lisa Gold suggests a few new year resolutions for writers.

    The Edge Annual Question — 2009: The always inspiring “Edge Annual Question — 2009″. This time: “What Will Change Everything?”

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